Serie A predictions for the upcoming 2025/26 season are already heating up. Honestly, I can't blame anyone for being excited. We're looking at what could be one of the most competitive campaigns in recent memory.
The 2025/26 Serie A season kicks off in August with 20 teams battling it out across 38 matchdays until May. The storylines are already writing themselves.
Napoli stunned everyone by edging Inter on the final day to clinch the 2024/25 title. But can they actually do it again? That's the million-euro question everyone's asking.
Napoli's Title Defence
Let me be straight with you – Napoli's title win wasn't a fluke. When you've got Kevin De Bruyne now pulling strings in midfield after his summer arrival from Manchester City, you've got serious quality. Add Romelu Lukaku who banged in 14 goals and 10 assists last season, plus Scott McTominay who scored 12 goals and added 6 assists in his debut campaign. You've got the ingredients for something special.
But here's what really impressed me about their 2024/25 campaign. Antonio Conte's defensive masterclass. They conceded just 30.7 expected goals – that's not just good, that's Premier League elite level stuff.
Remember those grinding 1-0 wins over Monza and Lecce? That's championship DNA right there.
Squad Strengths
Napoli went unbeaten in their final 11 games when it mattered most. Their defensive record speaks volumes – only 23 goals conceded in 2024/25. Second-best in Serie A.
At the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, they were practically untouchable. Unbeaten in 26 of 30 home matches.
Key numbers that matter:
- 30.7 expected goals conceded - defensive masterclass
- Unbeaten in final 11 games - championship mentality
- 23 goals conceded - second-best defensive record
- 26 unbeaten home games from 30 total
Now with De Bruyne's world-class playmaking added to the mix for 2025/26, they look even stronger.
Historical Context
This is their fourth Scudetto and first since 2022/23. The historical context matters here. They've shown they can handle the pressure of being champions.
Napoli remain undefeated against Cagliari in their last six meetings. 50% wins, 50% draws. That's the kind of consistency that wins titles.
Key Challengers to Napoli
Inter Milan
Inter are absolutely seething after that 5-0 Champions League final hammering by PSG. That anger could fuel them or break them. Cristian Chivu steps in as the new gaffer. He's bringing fresh signings Luis Henrique and Petar Sučić to shake things up.
Lautaro Martínez banged in 24 goals last season. Marcus Thuram was creating chances left and right. With 79 goals scored in 2024/25 (highest in Serie A), they've got the firepower.
The question is whether they can handle the mental side after that European heartbreak.
Juventus
Igor Tudor's got his work cut out trying to deliver their 37th Scudetto. Dušan Vlahović and Douglas Luiz should provide the quality. But here's the brutal truth – Juve only scored 54 goals in 2024/25. Their worst output since 1999/2000.
That's not title-winning form. I don't care how good your defence is.
AC Milan
Massimiliano Allegri's back. He's brought Luka Modrić and Samuele Ricci with him. Rafael Leão and Christian Pulisic offer genuine pace and creativity.
But let's not forget – they finished 8th last season. That's a massive rebuild job. Rebuilds take time.
Roma
Here's where it gets interesting. Gian Piero Gasperini loves attacking football. With signings like Evan Ferguson and Mario Hermoso, Roma could be the surprise package.
They won 15 of their final 20 matches under Claudio Ranieri last season. That's serious momentum. Gasperini's tactical approach could project them to around 2.3 goals per game.
Surprise Teams with Upset Potential
Atalanta
Atalanta scored 59 goals in 2024/25. Mateo Retegui netted 21 before his Saudi Arabia move. Gianluca Scamacca's injury is a blow. But that 5-0 demolition of Empoli showed they've still got title credentials.
They're electric going forward. Consistency is their kryptonite.
Lazio and Fiorentina
Maurizio Sarri's possession-based style suits Lazio perfectly. Valentín Castellanos provides the goals. Fiorentina finished 6th last season. Moise Kean at 17/2 Golden Boot odds? That's La Liga-level value right there.
Como
Cesc Fàbregas coaching. Raphaël Varane and Andrea Belotti signing. Como aren't messing about.
Opta gives them a 49% relegation chance. But I reckon they'll surprise a few people.
Tactical and Statistical Trends
Napoli's Strengths
Napoli's defensive solidity is their foundation. Conceding just 23 goals last season puts them in elite company. McTominay's energy and goals from midfield, combined with Lukaku's 14 goals and 10 assists, gives them multiple ways to hurt opponents.
Now with De Bruyne's world-class creativity added for 2025/26, they look frightening.
Home dominance remains crucial:
- Unbeaten in 26 of 30 home matches
- Stadio Diego Armando Maradona fortress mentality
- De Bruyne's creativity unlocking tight games
- Lukaku's finishing converting chances
Opportunities for Challengers
But here's what fascinates me about these Serie A predictions. 50% of matches hit over 2.5 goals. Yet only 20% end in draws. That suggests we're in for an attacking season. This could favour teams like Inter and Roma.
Inter's depth shows in their numbers:
- 79 goals scored - highest in Serie A 2024/25
- Lautaro's 24 goals - proven goal threat
- Marcus Thuram's assists - creative spark
Roma's attacking potential:
- 2.3 goals per game projected under Gasperini
- 15 wins in final 20 matches - strong finish
- Gasperini's tactical verve - attacking philosophy
Critical Matches to Shape the Title Race
Early Season Clashes
- Napoli vs Inter (Matchday 8, October 2025) - Early title race indicator
- Juventus vs Roma (Matchday 10, November 2025) - Top-four battle significance
- Milan vs Atalanta (Matchday 12, November 2025) - Dark horse credentials test
Mid-Season Turning Points
- Napoli vs Juventus (Matchday 18, January 2026) - Mid-season gap definition
- Inter vs Roma (Matchday 20, February 2026) - Contender showdown
- Lazio vs Fiorentina (Matchday 22, February 2026) - European qualification stakes
Relegation Battle and Dark Horses
Teams at Risk
Como, Pisa, and Cremonese are the promoted sides walking into a buzzsaw. Opta's 49% relegation prediction for Como feels harsh given their signings. But the numbers don't lie about how tough it is for newly-promoted teams.
Sassuolo and Torino worry me more. Torino lost key players like Ricci and Milinković-Savić. That's the spine of their team gone.
Potential Dark Horses
Bologna won the Coppa Italia under Vincenzo Italiano. Mid-table potential looks strong. Parma showed resilience avoiding relegation in 2024/25. Cristian Chivu's prior success could translate.
My Take on What's Actually Going to Happen
Look, Napoli are in a strong position. But Inter's hurt and hungry. Juventus have the pedigree but not the goals. Roma could be the wildcard that nobody sees coming.
What makes these Serie A predictions so compelling is the unpredictability. Atalanta could go on a mad run. Lazio might sneak into the top four. Como could pull off the great escape. Plus, with European competition fixtures adding extra pressure on the bigger clubs, anything can happen.
The beautiful thing about Serie A is that form, tactics, and a bit of luck can change everything in a matter of weeks.
The 2025/26 Serie A season promises drama, goals, and plenty of surprises. Whether you're backing Napoli to repeat or fancy one of the challengers, these Serie A predictions suggest we're in for something special. Check out SoccerVista for detailed head-to-head stats and more in-depth analysis.