La Liga predictions for the 2025/26 season are already heating up, and I'll be straight with you - this is shaping up to be one hell of a campaign. We're looking at 20 teams battling it out across 38 matchdays from August to May, but let's cut through the noise here.
Barcelona are defending champions after dominating the 2024/25 season with their 28th title, whilst Real Madrid are undergoing major changes with Xabi Alonso now in charge and significant signings like Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dean Huijsen.
Everyone's asking the same question: can Real Madrid bounce back from their disappointing season, or will Barcelona continue their dominance? I've been diving deep into the numbers, and what I'm seeing might surprise you.
Real Madrid's Rebuild Under Alonso
Squad Strengths
Listen, when you've got Kylian Mbappé, Vinicius Jr., Jude Bellingham, and Rodrygo all in the same team, you're not exactly struggling for options.
Xabi Alonso's appointment as manager brings fresh tactical ideas after his successful stint at Bayer Leverkusen, where he won the Bundesliga.
They've strengthened significantly with Trent Alexander-Arnold's €10 million arrival from Liverpool and Dean Huijsen from Bournemouth for £50 million.
But here's the reality check - Barcelona went 4-0 against them in all competitive meetings during 2024/25, including devastating defeats in El Clásico, the Copa del Rey final, and Spanish Super Cup. Real Madrid finished as runners-up, surrendering their title to Barcelona after a campaign that saw them fail to win a major trophy.
Historical Dominance
Here's the thing about Real Madrid - they've won 36 La Liga titles. That's not luck; that's a winning culture embedded in the club's DNA. But 2024/25 was a humbling experience that saw Carlo Ancelotti depart for the Brazil national team. Under Alonso, they'll be looking to rebuild and challenge Barcelona's supremacy.
Key Challengers to Real Madrid
FC Barcelona
Hansi Flick's got this Barcelona side playing some seriously attractive football. With Lamine Yamal's pace and Robert Lewandowski's finishing, they dominated 2024/25 with 102 goals scored and a domestic treble including La Liga, Copa del Rey, and Spanish Super Cup.
Their attacking output was remarkable - 102 goals in La Liga alone, more than any team across Europe's top five leagues. That youthful energy combined with tactical discipline made them virtually unstoppable, though they'll need to maintain that consistency.
Atlético Madrid
Diego Simeone's got a defensive masterclass brewing here. Antoine Griezmann's leadership combined with their trademark resilience makes them dangerous. They finished third in 2024/25 and their home form at Cívitas Metropolitano remains formidable.
The problem? Limited attacking depth. Over a 38-game season, that's going to bite them when fixtures pile up and they're competing on multiple fronts.
Athletic Club
Ernesto Valverde's got a disciplined unit here. Iñaki Williams and Oihan Sancet provide quality, and San Mamés is a proper fortress. They finished fourth in 2024/25, ahead of traditional powerhouse Villarreal, showing their progress under Valverde.
Squad depth for European and domestic campaigns might be their challenge, but their consistency shouldn't be underestimated.
Girona
Remember when Girona finished 3rd in 2023/24? They struggled massively in 2024/25, finishing 16th and only one point above the relegation zone.
The burden of Champions League football proved too much - their European debut saw defeats to PSG and other top sides whilst domestically they were fighting for survival.
With no European commitments for 2025/26, they'll be hoping to rebuild and rediscover the form that made them such a sensation just two seasons ago.
Surprise Teams with Upset Potential
Real Betis and Villarreal
Manuel Pellegrini's got Real Betis well-organised and capable of upsets. Villarreal consistently punch above their weight and finished sixth in 2024/25, showing their European credentials remain intact.
These teams have the tactical nous and individual quality to trouble the big guns when everything clicks.
Real Sociedad and Sevilla
Real Sociedad finished 11th in 2024/25, a disappointing campaign that saw Martin Zubimendi eventually transfer to Arsenal in summer 2025 after rejecting Liverpool the previous year. Without their midfield maestro, Sociedad will need to rebuild their engine room.
Sevilla had a torrid 2024/25 season, finishing 15th and spending much of the campaign battling relegation before a late surge under Joaquín Caparrós saved them.
Both clubs have that annoying habit of pulling off results against favourites when least expected, but they'll need major improvements in 2025/26.
Tactical and Statistical Trends
Real Madrid's Strengths
Under Alonso, expect a more structured approach compared to their disappointing 2024/25 campaign. With Alexander-Arnold's attacking threat from right-back and Huijsen's defensive solidity, they're building a more balanced squad.
- New signings impact: Alexander-Arnold and Huijsen provide defensive reinforcement
- Mbappé's integration: His first full season should see better chemistry with Vinicius Jr.
- Tactical refresh: Alonso's methods proved successful at Leverkusen
Opportunities for Challengers
Barcelona's attacking prowess was evident with 102 goals in 2024/25 - Yamal's pace can exploit any defence whilst their high pressing game creates numerous chances. Set-piece prowess across La Liga remains crucial, with teams like Atlético particularly dangerous from dead-ball situations.
Statistical insight: Barcelona's dominance wasn't just attacking - they caught opponents offside 181 times, the most in Europe's top five leagues, showing their tactical discipline.
Critical Matches to Shape the Title Race
Early-Season Clashes
Real Madrid vs Barcelona (El Clásico, weekend of October 25/26, 2025): Alonso's first Clásico will tell us everything about Real's title credentials
Atlético vs Real Madrid (September 28, 2025): Early test of Simeone's title ambitions
Barcelona vs Athletic Club (early season): Defending champions face consistent challengers
Mid-Season Turning Points
- Barcelona vs Atlético (December 2025): Could define who gets that crucial podium spot
- Real Madrid vs Girona (January 2026): Perfect upset potential scenario
- El Clásico return leg (May 9/10, 2026): Could be decisive in the title race with just three games remaining
Relegation Battle and Dark Horses
Teams at Risk
The promoted sides (Levante, Elche, Real Oviedo) face the biggest adaptation challenges returning to the top flight. Levante return after three years away, Elche after two, whilst Real Oviedo haven't played top-flight football for 24 years.
Teams like Getafe and Rayo Vallecano will need strong starts to avoid relegation battles that plagued other sides in 2024/25.
Potential Dark Horses
Valencia's youth academy resurgence under new management could spark a proper mid-table surge. Celta Vigo's attacking flair, when everything clicks, can trouble any opponent on their day.
La Liga Predictions for 2025/26
My Title Race Prediction
Barcelona enter as favourites to retain their crown. Their attacking firepower, tactical discipline under Flick, and confidence from their 2024/25 dominance gives them the edge.
Real Madrid under Alonso represents the biggest threat. The managerial change, new signings, and wounded pride from last season's failures could fuel a strong response.
Atlético Madrid will be there or thereabouts, but their limited attacking options might cost them over 38 games.
La Liga predictions suggest Barcelona will defend their title successfully, but expect Real Madrid to push them much closer than the 2024/25 campaign where Barça dominated.
Conclusion
Barcelona will look to defend their title after a dominant 2024/25 campaign.
Real Madrid under Xabi Alonso represents a genuine threat with their new signings and tactical refresh. Atlético Madrid, Athletic Club, and surprise packages like Real Betis can disrupt the established order on any given matchday.
For detailed analysis and head-to-head statistics that'll give you the edge in your La Liga predictions, SoccerVista's got everything you need to make informed decisions this season.