Money on the wrong side!...Or is it!?

[HiyaVata]

Was talking to Elfite the other night...besides him boring me with his private issues ranging from boyfriend to money problems, we actually touched on an interesting subject. Just kidding with you there Elfi
But seriously though, we talked about an issue that has been looming in my mind since last year and noticed Mwdepro touched upon this in the latest post here in the Betting Strategy. All this lead me to finally post and seriously follow my theory and see where we end up.
As Mwdepro calls them : THE UNDERDOGS
Here's what I had in mind. How many times did we create that perfect combo, the "must win" games under one umbrella, the full proof bet! The combo we told the world to follow and play, only to be denied every time just by that 1 game!? No matter what the odds were, 1.20 or 1.80, no matter how sure we were of a positive outcome, we still lost. And lets not mention the harsh reality of us bettors....no matter how many times this has happened to us, or saw it happen to others, no matter how much we know and acknowledge that even that 1.15 odd can kill us, we still tell our selves "naaaa, I know shit happens, but not my game tonight, it just cant lose"... then 90 minutes later, we're putting the clubs name and someeensmother in the same sentence, with a few other words in between.....
So what if we turned the tables around? What if we didn't chase that "sure pick", the "should win" odd, but rather put our money on the highest bets possible? The odds on teams that "should lose" range from a decent 3.50 to 10 ! And I don't know about you, but the German Pokal alone this year produced around 3 11.00+ odds!
So where do we start, and who do we keep an eye out for? Well, I'm not going to look at any game especially, rather than all the leagues, only divide them between the "major" leagues, and the "B" ranked ones. If I have time, I'll look into the "C-D" ranked leagues. (Example : England Non leagues, Norway 3rd division and so on....) And I'll start with this weekend. So what we're looking at here is the draws, and the "high odd" wins. Once the weekend is over, I will post the scores of the games and we will see what has happened.
Keep in mind, we're not betting on these games, just following them for now, and monitoring how many "underdogs" prevail and whether or not they yield a profit or loss at the end of the day.

BARCLAY'S PREMIER LEAGUE

Arsenal v Birmingham 1.28 3.20 11.00X2 3.50 FT 2:1
Bolton v Stoke 2.20 3.20 3.50 X2 1.61 FT 2:1
Fulham v Tottenham 2.87 3.25 2.50 1X 1.50 FT 1:2
Man Utd v West Brom 1.25 5.75 12.00 X2 3.75 FT 2:2
Newcastle v Wigan 1.83 3.50 4.50 X2 1.83 FT 2:2
Wolverhampton v West Ham 2.25 3.20 3.40 X2 1.57 FT 1:1
Aston Villa v Chelsea 5.00 3.60 1.72 1X 1.90 FT 0:0
Everton v Liverpool 2.40 3.25 3.00 X2 1.53 FT 2:0
Blackpool v Man City 5.50 4.00 1.61 1X 2.15 FT 2:3
Blackburn v Sunderland 2.10 3.30 3.60X2 1.66 FT FT 0:0

Spain Primera Liga

Atletico Madrid v Getafe 1.83 3.50 4.33 X2 1.83 FT 2:0
Barcelona v Valencia 1.40 4.50 7.50 X2 2.75 FT 2:1
Malaga v Real Madrid 8.00 4.75 1.36 1X 3.00 FT 1:4
D Coruna v Osasuna 2.30 3.20 3.20 X2 1.57 FT 0:0
Levante v Real Sociedad 2.40 3.20 3.00 X2 1.80 FT 2:1
Mallorca v Espanyol 1.90 3.40 4.00 X2 1.53 FT 0:1
Racing Santander v Almeria 2.10 3.30 3.50 X2 1.66 FT 1:0
Athletic Bilbao v Real Zaragoza 1.83 3.50 4.33 X2 1.83 FT 2:1
Sporting Gijon v Sevilla 3.40 3.40 2.10 1X 1.66 FT 2:0
Hercules v Villarreal 2.80 3.25 2.50 1X 1.50 FT 2:2

ITALY Seria A

AC Milan v Chievo 1.44 4.00 8.00 X2 2.62 FT 3:1
Roma v Genoa 1.90 3.25 4.33 X2 1.80 FT 2:1
Cagliari v Inter Milan 4.00 3.20 2.00 1X 1.72 FT 0:1
Brescia v Udinese 2.75 3.00 2.75 X2 1.40 FT 0:1
Catania v Napoli 2.87 3.00 2.62 1X 1.44 FT 1:1
Cesena v Parma 2.50 3.00 3.00 X2 1.50 FT 1:1
Juventus v Lecce 1.36 4.50 9.00 X2 3.00 FT 4:0
Palermo v Bologna 1.66 3.50 5.50 X2 2.10 FT 4:1
Sampdoria v Fiorentina 2.10 3.20 3.60 X2 1.66 FT 2:1
Bari v Lazio 2.62 3.00 2.87 X2 1.44 FT 0:2

Germany Bundesliga I

Cologne v Borussia Dortmund 4.33 3.60 1.80 1X 1.90 FT 1:2
Bayern Munich v Hannover 96 1.40 4.50 7.50 X2 2.75 FT 3:0
Mainz v Hamburg 2.37 3.25 3.00 X2 1.53 FT 0:1
Schalke v VfB Stuttgart 2.00 3.40 3.75 X2 1.72 FT 2:2
St Pauli v Nurnberg 2.25 3.20 3.40 X2 1.57 FT 3:2
Werder Bremen v SC Freiburg 1.53 4.33 5.50 X2 2.37 FT 2:1
Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen 2.30 3.40 3.00 X2 1.57 FT 2:3
Kaiserslautern v Eintracht Frankfurt 2.30 3.30 3.10 X2 1.57 FT 0:3
TSG Hoffenheim v Borussia M'gladbach 1.65 3.75 5.25 X2 2.20 FT 3:2


This might look ugly due to so many numbers. The X2 and the 1X's (the double chances) are the "safeties" since we don't know who will make the upset, but more importantly, are they going to win or draw against the favorite? So a double chance is there to see how this goes as well, since the odds on these picks aren't bad either.
Ok, so the desk is laid out now, all we do is wait and see what is to become of the weekend...
Editing this post with full analysis in 2-3 days time...

enjoy your weekend

[smoothcriminal]

It has happened to me so many times so, personally, i get what you are saying...Let us see how this goes.
We have upsets every week, so technically we need 3 upsets per league...right?
Also, Elfite, You can pm me in case you need someone to talk to about your personal problems....i have a major in psychology...lol

[Martel]

Hi guys,

I think this is a great initiative.
I also have been thinking about it lately, but didn't come up with a winning formula yet.

Look at it this way: upsets will happen! While at first glance they appear as freak occurrences they are in fact, in the long run, a natural component of the system, in the same way that forest fires are part of the cycle of a healthy natural system.

Lately, more and more often, I think I have developed some sort of intuition that helps me stay away from these upsets. Three games that I kept well away from: the loss of Liverpool against Blackpool, the loss of Barca against Kazan last year and the draw Cfr Cluj - Chelsea two years ago.
But did I bet on the underdogs and win? No, I just stayed away because something smelled bad to me. I did not have the confidence to bet because quite often this sense is wrong, I have kept clear of other games only to find the favorites did win by a comfortable margin. Still, on the overall, I think I managed to avoid greater losses than there would have been potential winnings.

But how to make the transition from gut feeling to researched system? How to spot the underdogs that will win with good accuracy and bet with confidence? I think that value-betting has a huge role to play in this, but maybe there is something more.

These are my humble thoughts on the matter, so far, I look forward to reading more from everyone else.

[elfite]

Also, Elfite, You can pm me in case you need someone to talk to about your personal problems....i have a major in psychology...lol

I´d be your mastercase than. Trust me, a lot of shrinks tried to fix me. They all failed.

Was talking to Elfite the other night...besides him boring me with his private issues ranging from boyfriend to money problems, we actually touched on an interesting subject.

Whats up with this gay thing, talking about my boyfriend? Is this my coming out now....?

[HiyaVata]

And so....


BARCLAY'S PREMIER LEAGUE

Favorite wins : 5 --- $ 9.99
Draw : 5 --- $ 19.35
Underdog wins : 0 --- $ 0
Double chance (Favoring the weaker team or draw, so 1X or X2) : 4 --- $ 10.71
Over : 6
Under : 4

Spain Primera Liga

Favorite wins : 6 --- $ 10.92
Draw : 2 --- $ 6.45
Underdog wins : 2 --- $ 8.40
Double chance (Favoring the weaker team or draw, so 1X or X2) : 3 --- $ 6.26
Over : 5
Under : 5

ITALY Seria A

Favorite wins : 6 --- $ 10.46
Draw : 2 --- $ 6.00
Underdog wins : 2 --- $ 5.62
Double chance (Favoring the weaker team or draw, so 1X or X2) : 4 --- $ 5.78
Over : 5
Under : 5

Germany Bundesliga I

Favorite wins : 5 --- $ 8.63
Draw : 1 --- $ 3.40
Underdog wins : 3 --- $ 9.10
Double chance (Favoring the weaker team or draw, so 1X or X2) : 4 --- $ 6.39
Over : 8
Under : 1

Late Monday night and all the stats are in. Remember when I said in the beginning that there’s always that 1 game, or 1 goal that flushes everything down the drain…well, that “tradition” didn’t bypass me this weekend either. Take a look, and spot the stinker
First fail..jpg and Second fail..jpg
Well, those two “stinkers” is the reason I started this thread. To try and see what is actually going on throughout the weekend, and to see if these results can somehow be avoided, or even used as a profit. This is what the results from this week’s games yielded :

If investing $1 stake per match, results are as follows:


22 Favorites Total: $ 40.00 --- $ 1.00


10 Draws Total: $ 35.20 --- $ -3.80


7 Underdog Total: $ 23.12 --- $ -15.88


What I did here was act as if I bet only on favorites in one example, the second only draws and the third if I were to bet only on the underdogs. As you can see, neither statistic is pleasing to us. It is funny though to see that favorites are in fact a majority in outcomes, but they gave us only a $1 profit in the end…sucks doesn’t it. The underdogs didn’t thrill us either, only 7 “surprises” and even sadder only a $ 23.12 return, resulting in a $15 loss. The Draws yielded a good outcome considering they were only a 10 game outcome. It’s no surprise when you take into consideration the high odd a draw carries. Unfortunately, the “draws” were 1 game short of a positive outcome.



I won’t get personal with any league because it’s just one weekend that we have stats here for, so it’s no liability, in other words, we can’t get an average since every week is different. What we can do, is look at noticeable stats that might be interesting for all the major leagues combined.
22 of the 39 games finished with the favorites wining with a $1 profit. So we can clearly kiss this stat goodbye. The Draws are almost there, but anything that’s close to 0 in this case is out of our book. We won’t even mention the underdogs, as clearly not only are they hard to predict, they are way away from giving us a profit…(for now). Throwing an eye on the Over/Under isn’t much help either since we clearly have an almost 50/50% division in every league except the Bundesliga, and here we have a fanatical 8 – 1 in favor of the Over pick?! Like that’s gonna happen every weekend…well guess what, it has happened once already before this! Out of the 8 game weeks in the Bundesliga, 2 times have 8 of the 9 games gone over, once have there been 7, 3 times 6 of 9 did the over, once only 4 prevailed and once only 3 came through. The two times the Overs were that low was in week 3 and 4 respectively.



Now let’s do the math:



8 weeks of 9 games per week. That means per $1 stake on every over we would have investing $72. Of the 72, 48 were Over. Even if we choose the lowest average odd for the German league in overs,1.60 (They range from 1.60 to 2.00) we still get a marginal profit. 48 x 1.60 = 76.80. This might seem a low profit, and it is, only $ 4.80 but keep in mind, I calculated this using a minimum odd. True, there might have been some 1.50 odds in there, but I’m sure there were quite a few 1.80 and 1.90 too so the profit might be higher. In terms of cash-in-hand this is pocket change. If we average everything out to continue like this until season end, you are looking at a net profit of around $ 25. It’s crap, but it’s a profit… The best use of this statistic (Overs in Germany) is to play a system of 6/9 and multiply that with a 3 game banker combo.



So you would have 3 bankers (3 games that must win for you!) and any 6 of the 9 games in the Bundesliga are to finish over. This on the other hand will give you a very nice profit!


Ok ok, I know most of you (as I did) wanted to see some real profit happening here. Unfortunately, something like that doesn’t exist BUT! There is something I noticed here that comes close to being called a good profit, and that’s this:
Of the 22 games that finished in favor of “The better team” 15 of them resulted in that team winning only by a goal difference. In other words 2:1, 1:0 and so on…. So!?… so check this out, the average odd for a -1H DRAW is 3.80 ! I’ve seen them average 4.00 in the EPL! And here’s the stats for this weeks -1H Draw:
15 Favorite wins -1H X: $57.00 --- $ 18.00


This raised an eyebrow, and so I looked a little further and checked out the stats in the French and Holland Leagues. This is how they finished off:

France had 3 of the 9 games finish with a -1H Draw. Holland had 5! Of their -1H go Draw!
Back to mathematics... and this gives us…58 games in total in 5 major Leagues. Again, using a $1 stake per match and calculating with an average odd of 3.80, we get:

$58 at stake

Return : 23 x 3.80 = $87.40 => Profit = $87.40 – $ 58.00 = $29.40 !

Now, don’t get your hopes up too soon. This profit may only be for this week, but it’s a statistic we will very much keep an eye out for!

Enjoy guys, and have fun watching the CHL tomorrow!

[hoomesh]

hey Hiya good work, i'll definitely try the overs with 6/9 system....thx

[HiyaVata]

Hi guys,
I know I know, it took me a while to update week 2 of following the big leagues,hey, better late than never...too much "BS in RL" but finally i find the time to post...sorry for the wait.
You might as well listen to some music whilst you read this :P http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hWLQ...eature=related

Followed 5 of the 6 leagues as previously, didn't follow Netherlands because they had a split week and forgot to copy their odds so I left that one out.This is what we got this time round:

BARCLAY'S PREMIER LEAGUE

Favorite wins : 6 --- $ 10.79
Draw : 2 --- $ 6.50
Underdog wins : 2 --- $ 6.20

Over : 5
Under : 5

Spain Primera Liga

Favorite wins : 8 --- $ 14.06
Draw : 1 --- $ 3.25
Underdog wins : 1 --- $ 6.50

Over : 7
Under : 3

Germany Bundesliga I

Favorite wins : 4 --- $ 7.91
Draw : 3 --- $ 10.10
Underdog wins : 2 --- $ 7.00

Over : 4
Under : 5

ITALY Seria A

Favorite wins : 7 --- $ 14.36
Draw : 3 --- $ 10.45
Underdog wins : 0 --- $ 0.00

Over : 6
Under : 4

France Le Championat

Favorite wins : 2 --- $ 4.45
Draw : 2 --- $ 7.40
Underdog wins : 6 --- $ 26.45

Over : 3
Under : 7

If investing $1 stake per match, results are as follows (49 games in total):


27 Favorites Total: $ 51.57 --- $ 2.57


11 Draws Total: $ 37.45 --- $ -11.55


11 Underdog Total: $ 46.15 --- $ -2.85


Again, we see a positive outcome of the favorites, still crap of a profit, but still in the +! This time we had more draws, yet a bigger loss margin, which is a bit strange if u ask me, and we can clearly see that the French league messed up that week with a staggering 6 upsets!

Now let's see the -1H, how it turned out to be...
Of the 27 favorite wins, 17! of these games resulted in a handicap draw, meaning....:
-1H X: $ 64.60 --- $ 15.60!

In conclusion, our handicap X yielded a good profit yet again! With Italy's seria A doing most of the work. Speaking of Italy, we see Seria A and Spain repeating a majority of favorite wins. England remain 50-50 on all fronts, and Germany producing an average of 2 upsets per game week again. Unfortunately, ze Germans did a 4 out of 9 on the Over scale

well..feel free to find your own interesting stats, I might come up with new ones, such as, what the "big" teams do over the weekends, and do they profit us by winning or losing ?!

Week 3 very close, so keep an eye out here if you're interested. \o

[adam.fisher456]

Hi Guys really good work and great ideas transferring one side to another one.