Euro Qual. 08/09.10.2010

[HiyaVata]

A little change from all the club games should do us all good. Back to top class players all in one team and as usual some low scoring games when we least expect them to Not too many big games as far as heavy names are concerned, some low odds but then in 4 days time we should have a couple off big meetings.

08.10.2010

GROUP A

Kazakhstan Vs. Belgium

At first this game worried me, as to whether we could witness the first "scalp" of the night, but the more I looked at this game the more I was convinced that this should be a well deserved Belgium win. Though both sides are coming in with 0 points, Kazakhstan failed to score at home against a good Turkish side and likewise against Austria away. Belgium on the other hand lost at home only by 1 goal to an always strong German side and was unlucky not to salvage a point in the always difficult away visit to Turkey. They did however manage to score 2 and even had the lead at one point. The thing is, this is a very very young team. Average age is somewhere around 23 (if we don't consider the 2 or 3 players over 29)! Missing will be defenderThomas Vermaelen and attacker Moussa Dembélé (both injured) and V. Kompany (red card). No problem, because look at these names : Romelu Lukaku, Fellaini, Daniel Van Buyten, Nicolas Lombaerts, Eden Hazard and so on. This is a team on the rise, and I will be putting my money on them again when they meet up with Austria. Don't expect too many goals though, at least I don't, as their biggest experience lies in their back line. In fact, their leading goal scorer is Van Buyten and he's a defender. He alone has scored 9 goals all together, compared to 10 in total of all midfield players and 0 from the attacking line up. This shouldn't discourage either, as the number of appearances for these attackers for their country range from 0 to 5, and only Eden Hazard has 15, and the boy is only 19 years of age. After a tough opener and hard away game, it's time for these youngsters to shine and prove them selves!

Prediction : 0:2

Pick : Belgium
Pick : Lukaku to score any time
Pick : Under
Pick : HT/FT Belgium/Belgium

Austria vs. Azerbaijan

Also going through a change, in other words, bringing in fresh blood into the squad is Austria. A simple 2:0 win over Kazakhstan in their first round and a repeat of that could kick the red and whites up to 2nd place in their group before their big game with Belgium. Maybe the under dogs of this group, as things stand, they stand a good chance of holding that 2nd place which might see them through. First place is reserved for ze Germans I would assume, so every "easier" game must result in taking all 3 points. A much stronger Azerb. team than Kazakhstan, could prove to be a not so easy task, but in the end Austria should steal this one thanx to home support. 1:0 shall we say? But at 1.25 i say forget it...if u must, then u must But rather go for the under par and goal scorer here.

Prediction : 1:0

Pick : Austria
Pick : Under
Pick : Marc Janko to score first/any time for Austria

Germany Vs. Turkey

Dare I say draw? I know its very rare to see match fixing when countries play, especially when it's a tournament, and not saying that this game smells like a set up, but you just cant look at this game and at least once stop to think what if they "decide" to share points as a political gesture?! Even if they don't decide, this whole Germany-Turkish population/roots thing is constantly going through my mind. Looking at some H2H results, Germany has never beaten Turkey by more than 1 goal! Maybe this is some sort of "comforting" factor, like, we will beat you but we wont thrash you! Shweinsteiger is out for Germany, this is good news for Hiddink considering he's missing some midfielders him self, Selçuk Sahin and (possibly) star Arda Turan. Altintop is my man to watch, if he plays well, Germany will have a tough one on their hands. A German win is @ 1.55...bleh.. could use it, but don't like it. Instead, I'm willing to go for goals here. Shouldn't be so much of a closed match as Hiddink won't give a damn what relationship these two have, hence an open game.

Prediction : 2:1

Pick : Over
Pick : Germany
Pick : -1 AH Draw
Pick : GG
Pick : Muller to score any time

GROUP B


Armenia Vs. Slovakia

Slovakia beat Macedonia who drew with Armenia. Ireland beat Armenia and are now playing @ 2.60 home win Vs. a 2.80 away win for Russia who Slovakia also beat. Get the picture!? If only it was that simple But @ 1.60 my mind doesn't want to think of anything else but an away win here. It's the first game of the Euro Qual. rounds today, and we all know what first games can do. All fingers pointing at Slovakio and rightly so. More so to the fact that Slovakia can go top of group B with today's win providing Ireland falter or draw. Then there's the setup between these two next game. These sides never met, so it will be interesting to see how they pair up. Slovakia not so keen on scoring but Armenia not the bullet proof team them selves either....so what's the choice here? Simple .. 2-3 goals

Prediction : 1:2 / 0:2

Pick : 2-3 goals
Pick : Slovakia
Pick : More goals second half

Ireland Republic Vs. Russia

On any other day this game would have the odds on the away team @ 2.20 max! Today, they are at 2.60 3.10 and 2.80. And it's no wonder. Russia have not looked like the team that has players who play in Zenit, nor CSKA, nor has their star player Arshavin shown his Arsenal bliss. The dog is wounded here and could bight! Ireland R. (and i keep mixing this one and N.Ireland..damn politics) enjoying a spell at the top of the group but only after games with Armenia and Andorra. Not exactly the opponents to judge ones form. But keep in mind, this is an Irish team who in my mind were supposed be in the WC and who have also beaten Algeria and Paraguay in their friendly campaigns this year. Not to mention only losing by 1 goal to Argentina.
Damien Duff and Keith Andrews still injured. Richard Dunne is said to be healthy and Keane up front as Captain. Keane might not be alone here tonight, as Kevin Doyle is in fine form and would be a shame not to put him in from the start. Pogrebnjak is out for mother Russia but the eastern giants have an ace up their sleeve as well, in the likes of Zenit's top gun man Kerzhakov.
My thoughts... a perfect GG and an even greater set up for our big odd tonight, DRAW!

Prediction : 1:1

Pick : Draw
Pick : GG
Pick : 2-3 goals
Pick : AH 0 Russia

Pick : HT/FT Russia/Draw

Group C

Northern Ireland Vs. Italy

Not a lot to say here but take the away win! I know quiet a lot of people will be betting on a draw here tonight. A 1:1 stale mate due to Italy's change in team, new this new that, old memories haunting them bla bla... But I dont see it any other way than a re buffed Italian squad. Inter, Milan, Juve...just a few names to refresh this seasons memories. And @ 1.70 why let it slip by!?

Prediction : 0:2

Pick : Italy
Pick : Cassano to score any time
Pick : 2-3 goals




And since we're running out of time....some combo's for today :

C1 :

Slovakia @ 1.6
Belgium @ 1.57
Italy @ 1.70
Holland Over 2,5 @ 1.70 !!

Odds @ 7.25

C2 :

Hungary Over 3,5 @ 1.50
Germany @ 1.55
Austria Under 2,5 @ 2.00
Albania Under 2,5 @ 1.70

Odds @ 7.10


C3 :

Ireland - Russia : Draw @ 3.10
Georgia HT/FT 1-1 @ 1.80
Germany -1H Draw @ 3.45

Odds @ 19.25

C4 :

France @ 1.60
Greece @ 1.40
Belgium @ 1.55

Odds @ 3.47


and last but not least....system :

4 bankers and 2/4 HT/FT results:

Bankers :

Belgium
Slovakia
Georgia
Greece


HT/FT 2/4

Ireland - Russia : X-X @ 4.35
N.Ireland - Italy : X-2 @ 4.50
Germany - Turkey : X-1 @ 4.50
Albania - Bosna : X-X @ 4.40

Min. winning odd @ 92.51

GL

Its 6:30 am now and i haven't slept...so here's a sneak of these two games and more to come from me today....when I wake up If I should sleep all day and not get the chance to post, here's what I would advise to put in your combo :

TO score any time (all four):

Huntelar (Netherlands)
Zigic (Serbia)
Rudolf (Hungary)
Iashvili (Georgia)

Odds should be around 10

(will edit)

[StevenE]

Very nice previews mate!!!

[HiyaVata]

more incoming

[HiyaVata]

That should be it from me now...if i think of something else or anyone wants to ask comment or what ever....feel free to post! The more input the better...


Now to go and get me some food!

[b3h]

Okay HV, say I take the 4 bankers listed, what would be a good game to use as my 'variable'?

[HiyaVata]

Okay HV, say I take the 4 bankers listed, what would be a good game to use as my 'variable'?

There's no "good" variable. U just take any game with high odds. I see you guys go for a 3 way , in other words your variable is a 1 @ 2.50 X @ 3.10 and 2 @ 2.60. Which is fine... but why dont you guys instead find an Over - under game where the odds are equal. I've seen many @ 1.90 each or 1.80. So instead of 3 bets you have 2 with pretty decent odds

[b3h]

Ok, thanks mate.

[mickey1982]

Good advice about the overs !! Smart thinking chap

[Mabor]

my opinion on the 'variable' -

if you have 3 bankers at 1.4 and add a variable of 2.5, 3.1 and 2.6. If one bets 10 units on each variable and the bankers win one wins 69, 85 or 71. So with 30 units one wins min 69, max 85.
on the other hand if one put 30 units on the bankers one get a return of 82.
i can't see the benefit of a variable.

[dule_rsfc]

Serbia – Estonia

Well, I wouldn’t write too much about reasons for us. Big gap in quality and home soil. That should be more than enough for Estonians.

Against… First, Serbia have new national team coach, Vladimir Petrovic, last year Crvena Zvezda’s. Under him, we (Zvezda) were playing the ugliest football that I (we) have ever seen. He invited formation with 3 defensive midfielders all together in the team! Defensive football with main target not to concede. More shocking, that was from one of two best clubs in the country who used to play against very defensive sides. I’m really afraid he’ll try the same in national team. He announced we’ll play with just one striker, Zigic, who is out of Birmingham team and out of shape. Wingers, Krasic (in a great shape at Juve) and Jovanovic (same as Zigic), and again 3 central midfielders. Stankovic is sure, for other 2 spots we have 3 players, Kacar, Kuzmanovic and Ninkovic. None of them is natural attacking midfielder (Kacar can play it though). For me, it looks like too much caution for Estonia that could lead to problems (we can’t score and become nervous, problems). Ex coach, Radomir Antic, announced yesterday he’ll suit Serbian football association for 2 mill euros for cancelling his contract. Very nice timing from him.

Goalkeeper Stojkovic, before few seasons Crvena Zvezda’s captain, made a shocking move and signed for big rivals – Partizan. Death threats to him are common things these days in Serbia. His appearance will certainly split the crowds which usually has bad impact on all players. Moving the game on Partizan’s stadium helps, however.

I would never bet against my own team and hope I’m wrong, but if I’m a foreigner I’d see X2 @ 5.00 (Bwin) as a nice little gamble. Under at 2.63 (888sport) also looks tempting and maybe I’ll take it hoping for 1-0, 2-0 win.