Finchy's Analysis(Liverpool - Marseille)

[finchy]

From now on, I post the active previews in the first post of the thread, and the second post serves as an archive. Comments are welcome


Liverpool - Marseille

Liverpool come into this game after an unconvincing start of the CL campaign, drawing 1-1 away to Porto - but still, they did relatively ok, since they played with 10 men. Now, at their home ground, they have the chance to make their later job easier, for qualifying in the next round.
Marseille, after a 2-0 win at home against Besiktas, maybe have hopes to get something out of Anfield, but I doubt they really believe in it. Marseille has a disastrous away record in the CL, with no win since 1999.
Liverpool are strong at home, and to my mind, they will entertain their fans this evening.
Home win is ok at 1.35.
But my money go on Liverpool to win to Nil, or in other words Only One team to score(1.83). It's a rare case for the away team to score at Anfield(only Chelsea achieved that this season... from a penalty).

[finchy]

Very difficult round for prediction it is. Though, apart from the picks from the newsletter, after some investigation I found other bets worth a try, mainly from the lower divisions.

First, from League 2:
Dagenam & Red – Lincoln City

Lincoln were unlucky last season to secure a place in League One after being knocked out in the play-offs. This season though, they have serious intentions to give it a second try for promotion. Basically, they don’t play much worse away(9-7-7 last season away balance), so they are capable of winning against the newcomers in the league. They had two easy wins in the last two rounds, and seem really a serious team for the league’s level. On the other hand, Dag & Red feel anything but comfortable in the beginning of the season with just one draw. They were trashed 4-0 at Chester last round, and even if they show some sign of improvement, it won’t be without forwards Jon Nurse and Paul Benson. Especially the first is an essential player and both of them are missing. So, it would be hard for the hosts the get anything more than a draw. Here take Lincoln Draw No Bet(1.90) to secure your stake in case of a draw or for combo X2 is good too(1.44).

And one from League 1:

Yeovil Town – Tranmere Rovers

To be frank, I don’t follow these teams very closely, but I came upon an interesting statistic that speaks for itself. The last season, 20 of 24 of Yeovil’s last games at home have ended under 2.5. Obviously bookies don’t pay much attention to that as the over and under are equally priced, which is a precondition to try under bets for every Yeovil home game – profit in the long-term is almost guaranteed as Yeovil have stayed in the same league and will play basically with the same teams. Well, we begin from this week. Take under 2.5(1.85). I will remind you next time Yeovil are at home.


Just to mention my picks from the newsletter here, too:
Arsenal – Portsmouth Portsmouth +1AH
Liverpool – Derby 1
WBA – Barnsley 1
Colchester - Burnley 1(I got the information that Burnley have some injury problems, too)

Newcastle to win at home to Wigan(1.7) is a common suggestion around the Internet, but I didn’t look into it. It seems tricky to me, but for such odds maybe it’s worth a small to medium stake on the home win

OK, enough for today.

Blackpool - Hull City

The late match from the Championship is a curious clash between two teams with equal points and even goals scored/conceded statistic. The Seasiders, newcomers in the League, face last year's survivors Hull at home, and a win for either of the teams shoots them up in the play-off zone.
Blackpool's results have impressed, as they had very difficult games last rounds against favourites for promotion Leicester and Wolverhampton, and against the well-doing Bristol City(4th). And losing away to Wolverhampton is quite normal, but to win away to Leicester in the first game of the season is impressive. Equally impressive is the win for the Carling Cup away to Derby, after penalties.
So, good results for the team lately and they deserve to climb up the ranking.
As for Hull, their perfomance is also OK, especially the elimination of Wigan in the Carling Cup. Besides, they're the only team to stop Coventry's winning streak.
Both teams have some injury doubts, but three players will feature for the first time for their new teams.

It's a tough game to predict, but as these teams seem very even, I believe home advantage will play a sufficient role here, so for me Blackpool have the upper hand.
Blackpool Draw No bet(1.62@StanJames) or Blackpool -0.25 AH(1.93@StanJames) is maybe better value.

Yeovil Town - Shrewsbury Town

Yea, Johnstone's Paint Trophy. Basically, an event I'd never place a 1x2 on, since it's very doubtful that a particular team has motivation to win it. But Yeovil are playing at home, and I told you about the Yeovil-at-home strategy in the first post of the thread.
It proved profitable in the weekend(1-1 against Tranmere), so we try it again.
Now 21 of the last 25 Yeovil home games have all been unders, and still the odds are the same for over and under.
Take under 2.5(1.90@VCBet)
Such odd is real value, judging from the statistics.

Torquay United - Salisbury

I saw that my two colleagues Xazar and mariusrec have posted a preview of this match and decided to share another opinion about it.
No football reasons here, but after bookie BlueSQ were announced as sponsor of a Conference, this league is liable to manipulation, when many bets are placed on a particular event. This is the case with Torquay, as a quick browse through the bookies showed that this the home win is one of the most played markets by the punters for today. For this reason, I'd never play the 1, but the odds in favour of Salisbury are intriguing.
To sum up, it's a very suspicious game, and this makes me believe that the result will be unexpected.
My money goes on X2(2.30@Sportingbet).
+1 AH line is offered on 1.70(Victor Chandler), which is another alternative.

It's Friday today and we have some matches from League Two on offer, which may bring some profit to us.

MK Dons - Notts County

MK Dons, under the guidance of Paul Ince, have serious intentions for promotion, but they're season up to now is anything but good, as they show quite unstable results, with only one win at home, against Shrewsbury. Initially I thought, that the home win will be the best choice here(odds like 1.75), but a statistics check and the incosistent Dons' form made me lean towards the over 2.5 goals market. MK Dons consistently manage overs(all of the last 4 matches) and bearing in mind that in the last 4 fixtures against Notts County, there's a total of 13 goals, I see no reason that this game won't be over, too. With the odd of 1.90, higher than the statistics suggest, we have value here, so I go for the over 2.5 alternative.

Lincoln City - Bradford City

Another game from League 2, featuring other favourites for promotion, Lincoln, and the unpredictable Bradford team. Last week Lincoln lost away to Dag & Red(1-0), which was quite a surprise, and according to the BBC Report of the match, this result really didn't represent what was shown on the field. Lincoln had the upper hand, but it wasn't their day to score. Now that they are at home to the unconvincing Bradford(relegated from League 1), they have the opportunity to recover. Lincoln's line-up will be the same from the Dag & Red fixture, and they don't have any new injury issues. As for Bradford, 6 of their players are major doubts, the most important of which is the keeper Donovan Ricketts.
So to sum up, Lincoln are the better team here, both as results and as players, and if we add to that the line-up problems their opponents have, I end up with the home win alternative or better Lincoln -0.25 on the asians which secures half of our stake in case of a draw.

Just a quick pick useful for combos, because there's only 1 hour and a half left till it begins.
I'm not sure whether you know about the strong bulgarian volleyball squad, but they are to trust against Finnland in the European Championships. Our players are classy, and only teams with the rank of Brazil(World Champions) are able to beat us on a regular basis. So, the Scandivanians are no match for Bulgaria.
Odd is small, but for combo with some Euro 2008 qualifications, it's ideal.
1.20.

I will post some previews for the football today in an hour or two

I hate it when a long post of mine is fucked up because of stupid systems.
Anyway, I will write it again, but just briefly, sorry.

Holland - Bulgaria

Yes, Holland are the better side here, but my country has good offensive players, playing in the Premiership. We were good in our last friendly against Wales, though we lost 0-1, we had a number of chances - but we didn't have Berbatov. Now he's in, and if not something more, we are able to score at the unhospitable Holland ground.
On the other hand, our defence has always been the Achilles heel of the team. We've never been as organized as we are supposed to, and I doubt that we will resist without a goal.
So my pick here is Both Teams to Score with the really high odd of 2.20.

England - Israel

A crucial game for England and as Steve McLaren said, "We have no excuses". In the must win situation for England, at the mythical Wembley ground, they really must cope with the tough Israel team. Even without many of their players, England still have the better squad, and I really can't see the Euro 2008 without them, so I'm confident of their success here.
Wembley will be too much for Israeli players, and I doubt that they show anything creative, except 10 men in defence. So England has 90 minutes to exploit an Israeli mistake, and probably they'll manage it.
The obvious pick here is the home win(1.30) but because of the higher odds I prefer Only one team to score(1.67). I really don't see Israel scoring here..

Good luck!

England - Russia

A key game from group 5, again at the renewed Wembley Stadium. After stunning performance against Israel, now the English team looks forward to secure a second victory in a row, and climb up the ranking.
On the other hand, we have Russia, a country I really like and have friends there, but as far as I see it, they will suffer on Wednesday.

England, though missing the majority of their titulars, outclassed the Israeli, and played better than they did with all their missing players before. The reason for that, to my mind, is that many players, like Gareth Barry, Heskey, Wright Phillips and others are given the chance to play a whole game for the national team since quite a lot of time - which is a honour for them. They have the opportunity, and they want to impress - they play with more heart, than for instance Rooney(a player I really dislike). Gerrard and Barry combined perfectly in the midfield, and now that Crouch is back after a suspension, Steve McLaren has more choice up front.
I really think that this was the end of the series of unlikely result for a strong side like England's. Now boosted and motivated by their 3-0 win, they will get another 3 points.
With odds of above 1.50 I really fancy the home win.
But my money goes on the Asians, as I see England covering the -1 asian handicap which if happens, will double our money(2.00@StanJames).

Tranmere Rovers - Luton Town

This evening we have a meeting between two teams, who haven't met in any league/cup game for more than 2 years. Championship-relegated Luton try to find their way in the lower league, and Rovers, who have lost the chance for promotion last year, have the aim to keep up with the best in the league.
I always pay attention to Tranmere home games, as they are a traditional home team, which gets the three points in most cases at their Prenton Park(13-5-5 last year). They are not to be trusted away, but at home you could get good odds sometimes, as in this case.
Tranmere are in a good run of 4 games unbeaten(3 wins, the last one of which away to the leading team of Carlisle) and after two successive games away, now they will feature again at Prenton Park, and probably rejoice their fans.
Luton on the other hand don't show in any way that they come from the upper division. Their results are inconsistent and to my mind they adapt to the League One - even if they make a good run, I really doubt it that its beginning would be away to flying Rovers.
As for injuries, Tranmere are without Calvin Zola(featured in 4 games up to now) and John Mullin(who hasn't played a single game for Tranmere these season). Luton miss striker Sam Parkin(played in 2 games). So, I don't think that injuries will give a significant advantage for one of the teams in the game.
To sum up, in-form Tranmere at home are always expected to have the upper hand. With the odds of 2.10@StanJames, it's worth backing the hosts, medium stakes.
My recommendation though is the asians line of -0.25 for Tranmere with odds like 1.80, so that we secure half of our bet in case of a draw.



I hope that if somebody has followed my picks, placed the under bet on Yeovil Town at home this Saturday. It proved profitable again,(Yeovil - Leyton Orient 0-1) for the third time in a row, and seems to be quite a good strategy. I just had no time to remind about it yesterday, sorry for that.
Anyway, a quick preview for one of Sunday's games:

Manchester City - Aston Villa

After a flying start, City have already slown down the pace and now face the draw-specialists of Villa at home.
To my mind, the impressive start of City was just a burst of good results, but they can't keep this consistent. Classic mid-table team, faces another mid-tabler in what promises to be quite a boring game to watch. Though one may gain something in terms of finances.
Villa have the fame to be the team with the most draws at the end of almost every season. 2006/2007 they had 17, and simple math makes clear, that if you have bet on every Villa game a draw, you will have quite a profit in the end.
To cut the long story short, both teams seem quite even at the moment, Man City have the home advantage, but Villa's confidence is definitely boosted by their 2-0 win against Chelsea.
Logics and statistics say draw, and of course a draw can't be a sure bet, but to my mind this is worth a try with small to medium stakes at the odd of 3.20.
Under 2.5 is another alternative, but the odd is quite low(1.65), so I'd refrain from a bet on this market.


Wolverhampton - Hull

Apart from the Champions League, which - at least tommorow - aren't attractive bet opportunities to my mind, we have a round in the English Championship taking place.
One of the primary promotion candidates, Wolverhampton Wanderers, face the last year survivors in the league Hull City at home in which promises to be a good fixture to bet on.
I've trusted Wolverhampton before and they are basically reliable when they play at home(12-5-6 last season), especially against weaker opposition, as they've won 9 out of 11 of their fixtures against the bottom 11 teams in last season's table. They've had an up and down start of the season, but sooner or later a pretentious team like them has to hit form. After two games away(draw away to stoke, and 3-1 loss against Premiership relegated Sheffield Utd), now they are again at their home ground, and expectations are that they get the three points. After giving him a rest rest, manager Mick McCarthy will probably recall the Wales international and main goalscorer of Wolves, Freddy Eastwood, who will boost the offensive power of the hosts.
Hull on the other hand will have Jay Jay Okocha feature up front, even though I just can't see them getting something away to Wolves. They have also been on ups and downs since the beginning of the season, but really - the capabilities of Hull and of Wolverhampton are easy to be distinguished.
The team with the pretentions here, Wolverhampton, is obliged to take the three points against the undoubtedly weaker opposition of Hull.
The straight home win is 1.62 at StanJames, and on the asians we have Wolverhampton -0.75@1.93 . The first one is good for a combo with one more game, as for a single - I'd take the asians.

One more suggestion.
Bristol City - WBA

The bets in advantage of WBA are overpriced in my mind.
We have newcomers Bristol City against the second season in a row promotion candidates, after missing their chance last year, WBA. The latter are determined to do good during the season and come for this fixture after two clear home wins(2-0 against Barnsley and 4-0 against Ipswich) and obviously have hit their form. Now they have a tougher test against the surprising runners-up in the table from Bristol. The 3-0 away to Coventry was definitely and impressive result, but Coventry have always been one of those inconsistent teams. What's more according to reports, Bristol weren't dominating in the game as the result suggest - just luck was with them. And finally, Bristol face for the first time one of the clear cut favourites in the league, and for me the WBA experience will dominate.
So all this makes me think that prices like 2.60 on the away win are a little bit too high. I go for the draw no bet(1.85) as a single.
I'd also take a combo with Wolves(1.62) and X2 on WBA(1.44) which pays 2.34.

Southampton - Colchester

Again a fixture from the Championship, which yesterday proved to be even harder than the Champions League.. Unfortunately, Wolves went all wrong and Bristol equalized at home to WBA in the 90-th minute.. Anyway, that's football, that's betting and we look forward to the next day
I think that fellow-moderators will post enough for the Champions League fixtures, so from me a game of the Championship again.
The Saints face last year's newcomers in the League, Colchester, famous with their home performance last season. But as good they were at home(15-4-4), as mediocre they were away(5-5-13). Saints currently occupy the bottom part of the table, but this is going to be temporary. Though Southampton are not the strength they used to be after selling some of their important players like Gareth Bale, their manager is classy and relies on young players, who are yet to develop step by step. After a disastrous start of the season(2 losses), Southampton bounced back with two wins against Stoke and QPR. Last round they lost away to Watford, but it's no shame, since Watford are a serious team. I don't consider this loss a surprise, and I believe that Saints will be able to secure wins against weaker teams. And Colchester away are not that tough(yes they won away to Preston 3-0, but Preston are disastrous this season) and are a surmountable obstacle for George Burley's boys, especially when the guests will be without their most experienced player, ex-ManUtd Teddy Sherringham.
So, I'd trust the Saints to deliver against weak away side Colchester, and the price for the home win is 1.72@StanJames. The line of -0.75 for Southampton at 2.05 is the other alternative



And just to mention my opinion about the Barcelona - Lyon game, which will be the broadcasted game on TV here in Bulgaria. With odds of 1.44 I really don't fancy a bet on Barca, as they are not that convincing. Lyon on the other hand won their last game 1-5 away which speaks for itself. I don't say that Lyon will win, but just don't take Barcelona at 1.44 regarding it as a banker bet.. It is not No bet for me.


And quickly about PSV - Spartak Moscow:

An outcome from the Champions League that seems quite probable is the under 2.5 for PSV and Spartak Moscow.
PSV have bought replacements for the sold Cocu and Alex but it has never been easy to score against a russian side. Just a quick look at the statistics shows that Russian teams concede extremely hard(the unfortunate part for them is that they rarely score, too) and it's a profitable strategy to go under for games with russian teams. The odds of course reflect this tendention(just 1.65) but it seems quite a safe bet. And if want to be risky, the under 1.5 at Victor Chandler represents quite a value at the odd of 3. But what is for sure, there won't be many goals in this game.




I am so stubborn sometimes.. For this Saturday I will take two of the teams, which fucked me up during the week. Championship again, yes.

Wolverhampton - Norwich

Wolves' home record of 1-0-2 just seems unbelievable to me. Surprisingly they lost against Hull during the week(0-1), and fans are more than dissapointed. As I've said, Wolves are an ambitious team this season, and have to win the majority of their home games, especially against mid- and low-table teams. Well, Norwich fall into the category of the "golden middle" teams, and Wolves will feel obliged to win, second successive bad result at home is too much. Squad news also are in favour of Wolves, as they have recalled their defender Craddock from Stoke(was on loan spell there) and Rob Edwards, defender, is back from an injury, so we see a renewed Wolves defence today. On the contrary, Norwich miss strikers Dion Dublin and David Strihavka, and adding to that the probable absence of Luke Chadwick, I really don't think that Norwich will be competitive up front.
So, home win here(1.75), or Wolves -0.5 on the asians(1.82)


Scunthorpe - WBA

WBA face another of the newcomers away, after they unluckily drew to Bristol City(who scored the equalizer) in the 90th minute in midweek). Anyway their next challenge are Scunthorpe, the other well-going newcomers except Bristol. Home and away statistics really are in favour of Scunthorpe(3 wins at home, while WBA are still to win away), but Scunthorpe have not yet faced a team with the class of WBA. As far as I am concerned, WBA's experience will be a key factor here, and I believe that they will have the upper hand here, as they did at Bristol, but were unlucky in the last minutes. Scunthorpe remain unchanged, and WBA welcome back Brunt and Morrison, both midfielders.
My choice is WBA Draw No Bet(1.65) or WBA -0.25 at 2.05 which offers quite better odds.

Just a reminder, for me Charlton - Leicester is a no bet game, as anything can happen, Leicester won't occupy their current position for long. 1.60 for Charlton is not worth a take, so avoid this game.

Southampton - Barnsley
Here it seems quite OK to go for the home win, the case with Southampton is basically the same as with Wolverhampton. They drew at home against Colchester who are quite poor on the road, and a second bad result in a row at home won't be welcomed. As Wolves, Southampton are in the lower part of the table, and that has to be changed soon, because this is not where they belong. And Barsnley this season are one of the relegation candidates, so we have a difference in classes here. Home win(1.60)


From League 2, MK Dons are at home to leaders Darlington. Dons, very likely to be promoted this year and of the favourites in the league, obviously have hit their form after 2 successive 3-0 wins, away to Brentford and at home against Notts County. Now they have a tougher test against in-form Darlington, with squad remaining unchanged. Well, Dons are the favourites here, as they are the classier team, and have the home advantage. Dons 0.25 on the asians at 1.88 seems the best choice here, as it returns half of our stake in case of a draw.




Yesterday was ok, I got 3 out of 4 on odds around 2, so I'm satisfied
Today we have a number of games from the Premiership, the most attractive of which is Man Utd versus Chelsea. But it's a game I'd only watch. My money go on another game:

Newcastle - West Ham

Newcastle are back from a humiliating loss away to Derby, and to lose against a team dominated by results like 5-0 and 6-0, is not OK for the likes of Newcastle and especially for the reputation of Sam Allardyce as a manager.
Now at their home ground, against West Ham, who got a flying start of the season, it's time to make up for the disastrous result at Derby. Viduka is back, and Michael Owen is in the squad. Allardyce is a great manager and surely knows how to motivate a team, and everybody in Newcastle is aware of the fact, that two bad results in a row, against unpretentious team is not acceptable.
Apart from that, everybody knows that Newcastle has the better squad and the better manager in comparison with West Ham, though the current rankings table doesn't represent this. I believe that Newcastle will be able to secure a win here and climb up the table where they belong.
Newcastle -0.5 on the asians at 2.10 or home win


Blackpool - Southend

Carling Cup has always been quite tricky to predict, as the motivation
of the teams participating is rarely obvious. Now on Wednesday we have
on offer again a number of fixtures, and the Blackpool - Southend one
looks relatively safe to bet on.
Blackpool, promoted to the Championship, are doing adapting quite well
to the new atmosphere, and their only loss is away to a team
with the likes of Wolverhampton. They drew four times, and have two
wins. Occupying the 9th position is a decent result for a team like
Blackpool in this tough league.
Southend on the other hand were relegated last year to League One, and are
now sixth which isn't bad but it's clear the the level in League One is uncomparable
to the Championship. Their last three games are wins.
But my main argument here is that Blackpool have already been eliminated from
the FA Cup. They surely don't make themselves illusions that they will be able to
get a Premiership promotion place in the Championship, so the only tournament
they can achieve something remarkable is the Carling Cup - in other words they
have the motivation for this fixture. Add to that the home advantage over a lower
League team(who has to fight for promotion this season and an advance in Carling Cup is not
a primary goal) and I end up with the home win alternative(1.70).



So, for the last round in the English Leagues for Semptember I have a couple
of proposols for your consideration.
Premiership:
Wigan Athletic - Liverpool FC

Liverpool come into this game after beating Reading for the Carling Cup, 2-4,
thanks to a hat trick by Fernando Torres. Anyway, I don't consider this a
significant factor for the game, but there are plenty of other facts that support
the away win here.
Firstly, Liverpool have a 100% record against Wigan in the Premier League(4 games).
It's true that Liverpool drew with Portsmouth in their last away game, but Portsmouth at Fratton Park
are quite a tough team to beat, and Manchester United have slipped up there as
well. But 0-0 at home to Birmingham is really unacceptable for the likes of the
Merseysiders, and Benitez knows very well, that the unwinning streak of 2
matches has to be ended at JJB stadium. Liverpool have no injury worries, thanks
to the rotation system Benitez applies, so they will be the dominating team here.
On the other hand, Wigan will have a tough time this year in the Premiership,
and will fight for survival. In this game, I really don't see them as a significant
obstacle to a motivated Liverpool side. Away win(1.62@StanJames)

Portsmouth - Reading Town

Pompey managed to stay in the upper part of the table throughout the whole
2006/2007 season and caused many problems even with teams with the likes of
Chelsea and Man Utd. Portsmouth at their ground, Fratton Park, are remarkably
stable(11-5-3 last season) and in most cases deserve to be trusted. This season
they drew with Man Utd and Liverpool at home, and won against Bolton(3-1) and
now for their fourth home game they face last year's hit Reading Town.
Reading impressed last season, but currently they're not in form. Three of their
last four games losses, and last round they won against Wigan thanks to a 90th
minute goal - such a record is anything but impressive.
Add to that the injury problems Reading have, with 6 players missing - Bobby
Convey Glen Little, John Oster, Ibrahima Sonko and Peter Mate. Portsmouth
will probably be without Kanu, but Utaka and Mwaruwari are fit.
Last year's game ended 3-1 for Portsmouth.
So I'd trust Pompey and take the home win, 1.80 at StanJames.


Don't touch Manchester City - Newcastle United. Both teams are quality, and
I would say - in-form. Anything can happen in this game, and it is intriguing but
only from a viewer's point of view. No bet here for me.
For the other fixtures I have no particular opinion. Regarding Man Utd away to
Birmingham, the price seems too low at 1.50 and I'd refrain from a bet here.
Chelsea are supposed to win their next one after crushing Hull for the Carling
Cup 4-0 away, and maybe they will bounce back in the Premier against Fulham,
after a sequence of mediocre results..

Unfortunately, there's not too much of a choice from the Championship.
My little suggestion is:
Leicester - Stoke
Leicester face Stoke after overcoming Premiership sideAston Villa for the
Carling Cup. Such a win could prove to be the game that boosts up future
Leicester results. Foxes are better than their current raking suggests and
sooner or later they will deliver. Well, I suggest that, with boosted self-confidence,
they will be ready to face Stoke. And they can win, as they did with the current
leaders of the Championship Watford in the third round(4-1). Home win(2.20)
or Leicester -0.25(1.85) (-0.25 returns half of our stake in case of a draw).

And from League One,
Yeovil Town play against Nottingham at home, so it's time for our next under 2.5
bet. If somebody hasn't understood yet, now 23 of Yeovil's last 27 games at home
are unders, and some of the bookies still offer equal odds of 1.85-1.90 for under
and over.
So, let's try to exploit their mistake(from a statistical point of view) once again.
Under 2.5.

[finchy]

So 22-23 was a perfect week-end
Now Manchester and Chelsea play for a glamorous finish of this week's games(but no bets here :P) and I advise you to turn on the TV because the game is worth to see.

[finchy]