Tennis

[docktor]

Tennis Masters Series, Madrid

I. Karlovic (21) - G. Simon (16)

Both player are in great form, with Karlovic better serve, while Simon has advantage in return points won. Better break points converted percentage for Simon. But i don't think he will have the chance for too much break points.
I fancy Karlovic in this one, and the 1.67 odd given by Gamebookers, seems enough. Maybe i will play also AH -2:0 at 1.95.
Karlovic - Simon 1.

[docktor]

Davidoff Swiss Indoors, Basel (975.000 USD)

Lopez F. v Chiudinelli M.
Feliciano Lopez (40) will play against unknown Chiudinelli (739) in first round. I couldn't find too much stats about Chiudinelli this year, he played only 2 games, both lost against Kutac Roman and Eleskovic Ervin (463). The interesting is the h2h between Lopez and Chiudinelli: 2-0 in favor of Chiudinelli, both match played in 2006. With 85% service games won by Feliciano Lopez from 595 service game played, 64% break point saved from 246 break point faced, 35% break point converted from 223 opportunities, i am delighted with 'just' -4.5 games handicap at 1.90 odd, and i will play it. I don't know much about Chiudinelli, and i know there are surprises, but now i think the handicap line is low.
Lopez F. v Chiudinelli M. 1, 0:4.5 GH odd 1.90 at Gamebookers.

P.S. Maybe can cover this with <20.5 games. I don't think that Chiudinelli will win one set, and in this case even with 6-4 6-4 this bet is winner, and recover the GH bet.

[docktor]

Last year Chiudinelli played in Basel also thanks to WC that has given to him, then he were on 388 position in ATP, and lost in 1 round against Ivo Karlovic (25 at that time) 6-3 6-2.
Correction: he played 6 games in 2008, winning 3.
My mind is set: i will split the bet as follows:
Lopez GH -4.5 and under 20.5 games.
Cheers.

[docktor]

Result: 7-6 7-6
Both picks lost. Big loss, as i was confident in this pick. Hope to recover soon.
Good day to all.

[docktor]

St. Petersburg Open (men)
Lejnieks K. v Kudryavtsev A.

Try to recover yesterday's loss. Lejnieks Karlis (665) meet Kudryavtsev Alexander (213) in 1 round. It's Kudryavtsev's home ground, his residence place is St. Petersburg. Kudryavtsev last indoor game was in 1 round in Moscov, where he won 1 set against Janko Tipsarevic, losing finally 6-4 3-6 6-7. Lejnieks played only in <50.000 USD price tournaments. I bet on Kudryavtsev, he's more experienced, he's home. but the 1.35 odd seems too low for me.
So, i will bet same as yesterday:
Lejnieks v Kudryavtsev GH 4.5:0 pick 2, odd 1.80
But I like more <21.5 games at 1.85.
Good luck. Cheers

[docktor]

Paris Masters Series (men)

Ginepri R. (53) v Berdych T. (22)

Ginepri come after Lyon open, where he was eliminated in eight-finals by Andy Roddick (7) 7-6 7-6. In last month he beat Llodra, Davydenko, he was beat by Gilles Simon, Andy Roddick.
Berdych was eliminated in Basel in first round by Simone Bolelli 6-4 7-5. H2h 1-0 in favor of Berdych 6-3 6-3 in 2006. Berdych has a powerful service, from 605 service games played, he won 85%, while Ginepri is 'only' 78% won from 550 service games played. Ginepri has won 61% from break points faced from 308 opportunities, while Berdych won 58% from 223 break points faced.
Ginepri has a better return winning 26% from 543 return games played, while Berdych won 24% from 598 played.
The odds of 2.60 given for Ginepri win, seems good enough, and worth try.
Ginepri to win is my choice.

[docktor]

Little combo for today.

ATP Challenger, Dnepropetrovsk, 125 000 USD

I choose 3 games in which i think the favorites are clear winners. All pointers show one way win: stats, rankings, form.

Labadze I. v Elgin M., 2
Marchenko I. v Karanusic R., 2
Dolgopolov Jr. O. v Kunitsyn I., 2

Odds. 2.39
I know, it's not great odd, and i only play medium stake, but worth a try.

[docktor]

Labadze I. v Elgin M. 4-6 3-6
Marchenko I. v Karanusic R. 6-7 6-4
Dolgopolov Jr. O. v Kunitsyn I. 5-7 4-6
Pick won.

[docktor]

Let's try another early one:

Tennis Masters Cup Doubles, Shanghai, 750000 USD

Nestor / Zimonjic v Bjorkman/Ullyett, 2

Pick based on current form. Begin in 15 minutes.

6-1 6-4 Pick lost

[docktor]

Tennis Masters Cup, Shanghai

Murray A. v Simon G., 1st Set Total Games > 9.5, 1.65
Sela D. v Koubek S., 1, 1.52
Odds: 2.508

In important tournaments, i like these kind of bets. Yesterday i wan with both games played in Shanghai with >9.5 games in first set. Mostly the first set is tight, most probable score is 6-4.
Sela Dudi (82) v Koubek Stefan (234) meat in Dnepropetrovsk / Ukraine. H2h 1-0 in favor of Sela 6-4 6-2. The 'old' Koubek will not have any chance against Sela. The current form is ascending for both players.