Some Formula 1 advice for Magny Cours - 20-22 June

[Behemoth]

I don't want to boast, but I think I can do something useful here and I did before, for two races I think:

http://www.soccervista.com/forum/use...04-2008-a.html

GP-Spain Racing...



I didn't continue to do reviews or something like that for Formula One here, but I didn't stop following what's happening there... Here is what I think for this weekend:

Ok, so, notice the high odds for Massa in Bahrain, the link above (5.00), when he really was the favorite there...
The thing is, with Formula 1 and betting, the races aren't held very often () so it's hard for the bookies to use statistics and make the most realistic odds - simply because statistics in formula1 don't mean as much as in football - and, most of the time, you can take advantage of it...


For example, Magny Cours

Duel: Giancarlo Fissichella - Adrian Sutil

Giancarlo had some good results here, has way more experience than Adrian, and is 'favorite' of the bookies, but - Adrian Sutil drove the track in Formula 3 before, has enough of experience to do something there, and Fissichella almost states that he hates it, he had one of his worst accidents (if not the worst) there in 2002 and absolutely has no love for it. He drives it as a part of his job, without enthusiasm, the way I see it, only reason he finished it in points past seasons is that he drove a Renault, fast enough to set a good time in qualifications and to manage holding it for the race. His performance in France won't change his reputation much, he's one of the most experienced driver at the moment, he's been driving for years, everyone knows his abilities, even if he doesn't finish the race, it won't be his first, nor the last time...
Sutil, on the other side, looks much more confident about Magny-Cours, and the motivation to give his best on the track he enjoys - especially after two unfortunate races without a finish. (note: he would've finished fourth in Monaco if Raikkonen didn't crash into him on the end of the tunnel... climbing to fourth from 18th there certainly requires a lot of luck, but he anyway proved that he can drive good enough to evade all the problems that he encountered on the track...)
Sutil probably has more motivation to climb higher as his Formula1 career is practically just begun, if she shows potential in Force India, maybe he'll end up in some better team next season. If he don't perform well, he goes out, and team searches for another young and perspective driver, however with employing Fissichella, the young team is paying his experience, not his 'competing spirit'
Ok, enough of writing essays...

Giancarlo Fissichella - Adrian Sutil 2.7 (gamebookers.com) for qualification looks like odd big enough to take the bet, it is risky, as always anything is possible, but Sutil sure isn't the underdog here
went down, skipping it for qualifications

You can also try to bet it for Friday (odds 2.5), or first wait and see what happens on Friday, who knows, maybe that makes you change your mind, and then make your bet for the qualifications and the race.


more advice for French GP to come, if anyone is interested in F1 at all


EDIT: Also, one more thing that looks 98% certain is to do a HIGH STAKE three singles:
Raikkonen pole position - 3.25 COMBINATION WON, profit 8,33%, but as said before, almost impossible to lose
Massa pole position - 3.25
Hamilton pole position - 3.25

The only and almost impossible way to lose is that Kubica takes the pole position, but you have to make an enormous bet to make real profit.

Better way to do it is to remove Hamilton (he has 10 places penalty on the race start, that may motivate him to give his best for qualifications, but it looks more like psychic handicap that will prevent him take the pole, because he's going into qualifications knowing that he can't start from first 5 rows... especially if Ferrari's set the pace that is hard to beat, like I expect they will on qualifications...)
So that way you would have two singles:

Raikkonen - pole position 3.25 COMBINATION WON, profit 62,5%
Massa - pole position 3.25
That way, you have a good chance getting more than double of your stake, but it's a bit more risky than including Hamilton (who stated that believes that knowing he will drop 10 places on the start won't affect his driving during the qualifying)... we'll see, it's your choice, I'm just trying to help you decide, not tell you what to do


And finally, for those who don't want to complicate things, Raikkonen looks as a big favorite here to me:
Raikkonen to win - 2.20 LOST

or two singles:

Raikkonen to take pole position - 3.25 WON, waiting for race result
Raikkonen to win the race - 2.20 LOST
but this combination gave profit, 62,5% of total stake for both singles

bye, I may add something...

[Behemoth]

Sutil failed to keep the pace on the training, not only with Fissichella, but with everyone.

Don't play him for the qualifications.

If anyone even considered playing it...

[Behemoth]

Qualifications passed as expected, thanks for your trust lol

[Ledi17]

Behemoth who you think will win tomorrow race ??

[Behemoth]

I wrote Raikkonen up there.

Raikkonen suffered engine problems and had to hand over his first place to Massa.

Overall, could've been a profitable weekend for me if I hadn't depleted my account a week ago rofl, would've been even perfect if Raikkonen had won.


The Official Formula 1 Website - Raikkonen may use ‘free’ engine change at Silverstone