Does Goal Difference makes any difference?

[Kamszzz]

Hi folks,

Actually i want to try something new, a new strategy which i have been studying lately. This is based on goal difference. Follow the example below:

The technique is simple. Just subtract the average goal difference of the Home team to that of the away team. Make its percentage taking the maximum positive difference as a benchmark.

The range would be -100% to 100%. With negative value meaning that the away teams winning and the positive value is for the home team winning.


HOME TEAMS
75% and above >>> Super Banker
From 50% to 74% >>> Banker
From 25% to 49% >>> Good Bet
From 0% to 24% >>> Risky bets (or potential draws)

AWAY TEAMS
-75% and below >>> Super Banker
From -50% to -74% >>> Banker
From -25% to -49% >>> Good Bet
From 0% to -24% >>> Risky bets (or potential draws)


I will consider only the 5 major leagues in Europe, English Premier League, Spanish La Liga, Italia Seria A, German Bundesliga and French Ligue 1.


For this week-end matches the benchmark of the different league is as follows:

ENG: 4.44
GER: 2.50
SPA: 4.29
ITA: 2.67
FRA: 2.48

Now I will apply this strategy for the up coming weekend game...

ENGLAND

Liverpool ---- 63% ---- WIN @ 1.40 ===>>> Result: 3-0 >>> (WIN)
Manchester City --- 64% --- WIN @ 1.40 ===>>> Result: 3-0 >>> (WIN)
Tottenham --- 66% --- WIN @ 1.30 ===>>> Result: 2-0 >>> (WIN)


GERMANY

Bayern Munich --- 51% --- WIN @ 1.60 ===>>> Result: 1-2 >>> (LOSS)
Werder Bremen --- 54% --- WIN @ 1.40 ===>>> Result: 4-2 >>> (WIN)


SPAIN

Real Madrid --- 77% --- WIN @ 1.36 ===>>> Result: 3-2 >>> (WIN)


ITALY

Fiorentina --- 55% --- WIN @ 1.75 ===>>> Result: 4-1 >>> (WIN)
Sampdoria --- 63% --- WIN @ 1.75 ===>>> Result: 1-1 >>> (LOSS)


FRANCE

Lille --- 57% --- WIN @ 1.85 ===>>> Result: 4-1 >>> (WIN)
Lorient --- 69% --- WIN @ 2.10 ===>>> Result: 4-0 >>> (WIN)
Lyon --- 69% --- WIN @ 1.31 ===>>> Result: 2-0 >>> (WIN)
PSG --- 64% --- WIN @ 1.43 ===>>> Result: 3-0 >>> (WIN)
Toulouse --- 58% --- WIN @ 1.92 ===>>> Result: 0-2 >>> (LOSS)


Following the Goal Difference Strategy 13 teams are being tipped to win. As you will see by the percentage, i have chosen Bankers and Super Bankers.

Let us see what happen...

Goodluck to me... http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/images/smiles/fingerscrossed.gif http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/images/smiles/fingerscrossed.gif http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/images/smiles/fingerscrossed.gif http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/images/smiles/icon_smile.gif

[Kamszzz]

So Far... After 4 games

3/4 WIN --- Still good...

[Kamszzz]

After 10 games...

7/10 WIN --- Positive LSP so far...:)

[Kamszzz]

Matchday Analysis (After 13 games)

Correct Prediction: 10/13 (76.9%)
Level Stake Profit (1X2): 2.10
Over 2.5 goals: 9/13 (69.2%)
Handicap Win (-1): 9/13 (69.2%)

The above stats shows that this strategy might have a future, but we still have to wait for confirmation next week. What i deduce from this weekend matches, most of these games must be Over 2.5 goals and also handicap (-1) wins. Surely the LSP of both Under/Over and Handicap (-1) wins would have been very high seeing the fact that the strike rate is 69.2% respectively.



Comments, analysis, debates and critics on this weekend and next week games are most welcome.

[Kamszzz]

Updated League Benchmark

ENGLAND: 4.63
GERMANY: 2.50
SPAIN: 4.18
ITALY: 2.67
FRANCE: 2.64


Predictions for the Weekend starting 3rd April...

ENGLAND

Arsenal --- 54% --- WIN @ 1.20 ===>>> Result: 1-0 >>> (WIN)
Fulham --- 52% --- WIN @ 1.80 ===>>> Result: 2-1 >>> (WIN)


GERMANY

Hamburg --- 63% --- WIN @ 1.45 ===>>> Result: 0-0 >>> (LOSS)


SPAIN

Barcelona --- 59% --- WIN @ 1.20 ===>>> Result: 4-1 >>> (WIN)
Real Madrid --- 51% --- WIN @ 1.35 ===>>> Result: 2-0 >>> (WIN)
Sevilla --- 54% --- WIN @ 1.45 ===>>> Result: 3-0 >>> (WIN)


ITALY

Genoa --- 85% --- WIN @ 1.55 ===>>> Result: 1-1 >>> (LOSS)
Inter Milan --- 68% --- WIN @ 1.25 ===>>> Result: 3-0 >>> (WIN)


FRANCE

Marseille --- 72% --- WIN @ 1.40 ===>>> Result: 1-0 >>> (WIN)
Montpellier --- 60% --- WIN @ 1.80 ===>>> Result: 0-0 >>> (LOSS)

[khanfan]

Hello Kamszzz,
Please Inform about your benchmark How you calculate?
Thanks,
khanfan

[Kamszzz]

Yeah khanfan, Thanks for showing some interest...

The technique is simple. Just subtract the average goal difference of the Home team to that of the away team. Make its percentage taking the maximum positive difference as a benchmark.

I'll give you an example...

In the Premier League Chelsea has the best home goal diff. +38 in 16 matches. The average becomes 2.38. Likewise, the worst away goal diff. of the league is Burnley with -36 in 16 Matches. Again the average here becomes -2.25.

So, we take the BEST HOME AVERAGE GOAL DIFF. subtract it to the WORST AWAY AVERAGE GOAL DIFF. which gives you 4.63.

The 4.63 is the benchmark. This gives you an idea of how far the winning teams is to the best.

Hope this solves your problem...

Regards,
Kams...

[khanfan]

Thank for Inform
I test on Italy Roma has the best +18 and worst away is udinese -18
best home 18/16=1.125
worst away -18/16=-1.125
subtract 2.25

after that How you calculate the best team?(I see your post Genoa and Inter Milan)
Regards,
Khanfan

[Kamszzz]

You made a mistake Khanfan, actually the best home in Italy is Inter - +19 in 15 games...

My benchmark is correct, plz check your stats...

Well after that, you do the same procedure for the matches being played...

You divide your result with the benchmark and make its percentage...

Take for example, the Inter/Bologna game...

Inter gives you +1.27 and Bolongna gives you -0.53..

The total is +1.80... Dividing the total with the benchmark gives you 0.675... Broadly make you 68% as obtained above...

And Currently Inter is leading 1-0...

Regards,
Kams...

[Kamszzz]

Matchday Analysis (After Day 2)

Correct Prediction: 6/9 (66.7%)
Level Stake Profit (1X2): -0.45
Over 2.5 goals: 5/9 (55.7%)
Handicap Win (-1): 4/9 (44.4%)

Poor Indeed... But still some positive things to take out...

Lets be hopeful next time...

[shawnward1066]

Hey that great after 3 games
3/3 - very good

[avs_kz]

Can anybody tell me where a can find benchmark?